Inox Wind Still a Smart Buy: Nuvama Retains Bullish Call Despite Reduced Forecast

Inox Wind Nuvama Buy rating: Despite lowering target to ₹190, Nuvama reaffirms bullish stance; strong Q1 FY26 execution, margins, and ₹3.1 GW order book spark confidence.

Ever felt that moment when the numbers on your screen flicker between “dread” and “hope”? That’s exactly where many energy investors stand right now. But what if the very dips and revisions spark the strongest confidence? Enter the world of Inox Wind Nuvama Buy rating, where a lowered target price isn’t a red flag—it’s an invitation into the eye of a growth storm.

Let’s peel back the layers of Q1 FY26 results, Nuvama’s nuanced forecasts, and why this wind energy play still has plenty of tailwind—even with a lower elevation in sight.

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What’s in the Q1 FY26 Mix for Inox Wind?

Solid Execution (146 MW; Just Below Estimates)

Inox delivered 146 MW of execution in Q1 FY26, a tad shy of the ~180 MW analysts expected. In plain terms, it’s like serving a slightly undercooked cake—not perfect, but still delectable. niftynews.blogThe Economic Times

Revenue and Margins That Impress

With revenue clocking in at ₹830 crore and operating margin jumping to 22.2%, Inox actually outperformed consensus on EBITDA—thanks to a product-heavy mix. EBITDA beat was around 7%, and adjusted PAT soared to ₹110 crore—11% above expectations—even after absorbing a ₹40 crore non-cash tax hit. niftynews.blogThe Economic Times

Order Book Strength

Order inflow in Q1 was 51 MW, but the big picture shines: a ₹3.1 GW order book, enough fuel for 24 months of execution. That’s like being in the fridge and already stocked for the whole week. niftynews.blog

Takeaway: Execution slightly lagged, but the strong margins, PAT surprise, and big order pipeline show Inox Wind isn’t just riding gusts—they’re harnessing them.

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Nuvama’s Growth Forecast: Confident Yet Calibrated

Revised Execution Projections

Analysts trimmed their FY26 and FY27 execution forecasts slightly—from 1.2 GW to 1.1 GW in FY26 and from 2.0 GW to 1.8 GW in FY27. Even so, next year still promises a fairly robust climb. niftynews.blogThe Economic Times

Duopoly, Market Share & Moat

India’s wind EPC + turbine generator space essentially has two giants—Inox and Suzlon. With a ~20% market share, Inox is comfortably entrenched. Their edge: big turbines beyond 3 MW, a ~4.5 GW nacelle capacity, high-margin (around 35%) O&M services, and a leaner balance sheet after merger-driven liability cuts. niftynews.blogBusiness TodayThe Economic Times

Nuvama’s Verdict

Despite trimming their target from ₹236 down to ₹190, Nuvama reaffirmed ‘Buy.’ Why? Because Inox still checks the boxes: clean balance sheet, multi-year order visibility, margin resilience, and structural advantage. niftynews.blogThe Economic Timesmint

Takeaway: Lowered projection isn’t defeatism—it’s fine-tuning. Market conditions have a stiff breeze, but Inox’s sail is still up and ready.

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Q1 FY26 Deep Dive: A Story of Resilience

Let’s translate the numbers into a story:

• Net Profit: ₹97.3 crore—up 134% YoY, ignoring deferred tax. niftynews.blog
  
• PBT: Up 167% YoY to ₹138 crore.
  
• Cash Profit After Tax: A mighty 168% YoY surge to ₹186 crore.
  
• Revenue: ₹826.3 crore—up 29.2% YoY.
  
• EBITDA: ₹183.8 crore—up 36.5%, margins improved over 100 bps to 22.2%.
  
• Balance Sheet Boost: Merger reduced liabilities by ~₹2,050 crore. niftynews.blogThe Economic Times
  

That’s not just growth—it’s growth with legs.

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Stock Price Churn & Long-Term Perspective

In the short term, the stock has been stormy:

• 1-Year Drop: ~35% pullback.
  
• Monthly Slumps: June –10%; July –13%; August so far –9%.
  
• Older Gains: May +15%, April +2%, March +8.5%.
  
• Where’s it standing? 47% below its 52-week high (₹258.43 in Sept 2024), and above its low (~₹128.38 in Jan 2025). niftynews.blog
  

Now zoom out: over five years, Inox has delivered a whopping +1,197%. Those are multibagger magic wand numbers. niftynews.blog

Takeaway: There are storms—yes. But the long horizon shows a jet stream of growth, and Nuvama sees room to catch that uplift again.

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Human Analogy: Inox Wind as a College Running Team

Think of Inox Wind as a varsity runner training for a big marathon:

1. Execution Slightly Off Pace: It’s like starting in second gear, but not slowing down.
   
2. Margins, Profits, and Order Book = Energy reserves, strong stamina, and a clear route.
   
3. Cost-Cutting Merger = Shedding Weight: A lighter, stronger balance sheet ready for the next lap.
   
4. Market Moat = Stadium Home Advantage: Only two teams (Inox & Suzlon), and Inox owns prime turf.
   
5. Target Lowered = Adjusted Heartbeat: Nuvama says “You’re still top of the class—just pacing smarter.”
   

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Wrap-up: Why You Should Still Care

• Execution slightly missed—but profit, margin, and order book are flying strong.
  
• Nuvama trimmed their estimates—but maintained Buy on a structure that’s still fundamentally sound.
  
• Short-term volatility doesn’t obscure the long-term trend. Inox Wind’s multi-year performance is nothing short of electric.
  

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CTA:

What do you think? With supply outpacing demand and wind firms commanding a unique duopoly, is Inox Wind still a runway-ready rocket—or is the temp stalled? Drop your thoughts below!